Indonesia’s 2014 Presidential Candidates; a Profile of Aburizal Bakrie | Indonesia Investments

Indonesia’s 2014 Presidential Candidates; a Profile of Aburizal Bakrie | Indonesia Investments

Although Indonesia’s next presidential election will be held in mid-2014, Aburizal Bakrie already announced in 2012 that he would run for the presidency on behalf of the Golkar party, one of the leading political parties of Indonesia and once the strong political vehicle of Suharto during the New Order regime (1965-1998). However, Bakrie, chairman of Golkar and often referred to by his nickname 'Ical', is one of the most controversial figures in modern Indonesian politics and business.

Seeing his business empire (which he inherited from his father) going close to bankruptcy in the turbulent late 1990s when the Asian Financial Crisis hit Indonesia hardest of all involved countries, Bakrie bounced back after a successful refinancing process in the 2000s. In 2008, Forbes placed him on the first spot in its list of richest Indonesians, with his wealth mainly originating from the Bakrie Group. In the latest ‘rich list’ of Indonesian magazine Globe Asia, Bakrie was named as the sixth richest Indonesian (June 2013 edition) with an estimated wealth of USD $2.45 billion.

However, the Bakrie Group has considerable debt. Based on data provided by Lembaga Analis Independen (Independent Analysis Institute) in September 2012, the ten companies affiliated with Bakrie Brothers (the holding company of the Bakrie Group) had a combined debt of IDR 21.4 trillion (about USD $2 billion) up to Q1 2012. About IDR 7.1 trillion of this debt fell due in 2012.

Moreover, US dollar denominated debt reached USD $5.7 billion, USD $275 million of which fell due in 2012. These debt figures are what forms the epicenter of Bakrie’s (business) burden. But apart from debt, another issue is strongly attached to Bakrie. A huge mud flow in Sidoarjo (East Java), brought on due to gas drilling by Lapindo Brantas, ruined more than 600 hectares of land and displaced more than 39,700 people in 2006. The company, however, has always claimed that an earthquake in Yogyakarta, prior to the mud eruption, was the cause of the disaster. It was later revealed that numerous violations were made in connection to Lapindo Brantas' drilling process. The company was partly owned by the Bakrie Group at the time of the disaster. The mud flow is still erupting today. For sure, the Lapindo case is burdensome for Bakrie and is one that will be used by his political enemies in the race for the Indonesian presidency.

Bakrie, born on 15 November 1946, is not new to Indonesian politics as he has had various political positions in his life: president of the ASEAN business forum (1991-1995), president of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (1994-2004), Coordinating Minister for Economy (2004-2005), Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare (2005-2009), and chairman of Golkar (since 2009).

In his speech titled "Climbing Mount Semeru", in which he declared his bid for the presidency, Bakrie - with an optimistic tone - said that, like climbing a mountain, there will be thousands of challenges. But despite highs and lows "God willing, I will successfully confront them."

In the speech, Bakrie proposed a number of ideas in case he becomes elected as president. One is to expand the concept of the Trilogy Development (a New Order regime concept that foresees national stability, high economic growth, and social equality) with additional new ideas about Indonesian nationalism becoming the key to national development (Catur Sukses Pembangunan Nasional) in a globalized environment.

But another problem needs to be faced by Bakrie as well. Various surveys indicate that the public in fact prefers another presidential candidate from the Golkar party, namely Jusuf Kalla, a businessman and former vice president (2004 to 2009). The unpopularity of Bakrie and popularity of Kalla can become reason for Golkar to revise its stance on the party's 2014 presidential candidate. Some time ago, chairman of Golkar's Advisory Council, Akbar Tanjung, stated that there is room to change the party's candidate in case support for Bakrie remains low. Thus, with just one more year to go to the elections, it remains uncertain who Golkar's candidate will be.

Top Ten Richest Indonesians:

Individual	Business Group	Wealth¹
1. Robert Hartono & Michael Hartono	Djarum	15.5
2. Eka Tjipta Widjaja	Sinar Mas	13.1
3. Anthoni Salim	First Pacific	10.1
4. Susilo Wonowidjojo	Gudang Garam	6.00
5. Martua Sitorus	Wilmar International	3.70
6. Aburizal Bakrie	Bakrie Group	2.45
7.Putera Sampoerna	Sampoerna Strategic	2.40
8. Peter Sondakh	Rajawali Group	2.35
9. Mochtar Riady	Lippo Group	2.15
10. Sukanto Tanoto	Royal Golden Eagle	2.10

^{¹ in billion US dollar
Source: Globe Asia (June 2013)}
 

Agung Budiono is an analyst at Jakarta-based Pol-Tracking Institute

Towards Indonesia's Presidential Elections: a Profile of Prabowo Subianto | Indonesia Investments

Towards Indonesia's Presidential Elections: a Profile of Prabowo Subianto | Indonesia Investments

If presidential elections were to be held today, it is probable that Prabowo Subianto would be chosen by the Indonesian electorate to become Indonesia's next president. Various surveys indicate that Prabowo, a former high military officer as well as a successful businessman, is the most popular person to replace incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in mid 2014 when new presidential elections will be held (which are not joined by Yudhoyono as he is finishing his second and final term as president).

Prabowo, born in Jakarta on 17 October 1951, is son of renowned economist Sumitro Djojohadikusumo (1917-2001). After high school, Prabowo decided to pursue a military career and enrolled in Indonesia's Military Academy in Magelang (Central Java) between 1970 and 1974. He quickly passed through the ranks of the army and became Commandant of the Special Command Force General (Kopassus) and was later appointed as head of the Army Strategic Reserve Command (Kostrad). However, in the late 1990s the regime of president Suharto, Prabowo's father in law, starting to crumble until its collapse in 1998. Based on witness accounts of Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie (Indonesia's third president) and retired army officer Sintong Panjaitan, Prabowo attempted a (failed) coup when he positioned his army units close to the house of then president Habibie, shortly after the fall of Suharto.

Prabowo is a highly controversial figure in Indonesia. He is regarded as a human rights violator when he was stationed in East Timur to crush the East Timorese independence movement in the early 1990s. Reputedly, Prabowo was also behind the kidnappings and disappearance of various pro-democracy activists in 1998, when many people took the streets of Jakarta and other cities in Indonesia to demand for democracy. His weak reputation in terms of human rights can be used by his political opponents on the road towards the Indonesian presidential elections.

After the fall of the Suharto regime, Prabowo was discharged from the military and went into a voluntary exile in Jordan. But a few years later, he came back to Indonesia and entered politics. In 2004, Prabowo wanted to participate in the presidential elections by becoming Golkar's nominee (Golkar is one of the largest political parties of Indonesia and was the political vehicle of former president Suharto during his authoritarian regime). However, that position went to another former military officer, Wiranto. Prabowo then decided to establish his own political vehicle, the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), which participated in the elections of 2009. The party did not get enough votes in order to nominate a presidential candidate and therefore Prabowo decided to run as vice presidential candidate to Megawati Soekarnoputri, daughter of Indonesia's first president Sukarno. However, the two lost to the Yudhoyono-Boediono pair.

Being closely connected to the former authoritarian New Order regime and often mentioned as a human rights violator, it may surprise some that Prabowo enjoys popularity and even leads various surveys that measure people's support for specific presidential candidates. The answer is that many Indonesians want a strong leader as they are disappointed in Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's performance. The latter is regarded having acted weak in some issues regarding religious violence or discrimination and failed to tackle corruption within political circles (in fact within his own party a number of sensitive corruption cases emerged). Prabowo is also known as a highly nationalistic person, while many Indonesians feel that Yudhoyono's political and economic agenda is too much influenced by foreign institutions (such as the IMF or World Bank).

There are no recent official documents regarding the wealth of Prabowo but, based on a document that was released in 2009, the wealth of Prabowo is estimated to be around IDR 1.7 trillion (USD $172 million, using today's exchange rate). The younger brother of Prabowo, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, is the 39th richest person in Indonesia according to Forbes magazine in 2012, with an estimated wealth amounting to USD $750 million. The brothers were beneficiaries of Suharto's patronage system. In this system, a small inner circle around Suharto was able to establish large business empires. Up to the present, wealth is an important factor in Indonesian politics as people can buy political support through money-politics. 

However, there is one outsider who forms a potential threat to Prabowo Subianto's leading position in the surveys. Incumbent governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo (perhaps more known as Jokowi), enjoys much popular support for his style of governance (his closeness to the people and reformist nature). Research conducted by the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia, abbreviated LIPI), released on 30 June 2013, indicates that, if Jokowi would participate in the 2014 elections, it would upset the current polling results. However, despite his popularity, it remains unknown whether Jokowi will participate. Up to this day, he has denied any intention of joining the race, instead focusing on his position as governor of Jakarta.

Agung Budiono is an analyst at Jakarta-based Pol-Tracking Institute